Monday, October 27, 2008

Shhh! Did You Hear That?

As I was driving somewhere today, I heard a voice come out of the radio about housing sales being up about 2% in September. Now they really didn't say if they were up from August, or up from September last year, but at least they were supposedly up from something!

While I continued to cruise along thinking about how great this was, and imagining SOLD riders springing up on For Sale signs faster than buyers could gas up their cars, I switched radio stations and heard another voice mentioning that home values are at the same level that they were in September of 2004. And someone told me last week that they heard this whole housing thing was supposed to pick up in the 3rd quarter of 2023.

In just five or ten minutes of watching CNBC or FNN, you will get a similar array of stupidity from an endless parade of experts regarding the stock market and the financial mess. The political process is worse yet, with hour long debates from a cast of characters about "Joe the Plumber!"

Jon Stewart, of The Daily Show, may have done the best job on this nonsense with his bit piece this evening on political analysts called: "Who the "BLEEP" is This Guy?"

It seems to me that the rate of consumer indecision correlates directly to the number of analysts spewing out garbage at any given point in time. In fact, I may attempt to prove that in a theorem, since the real estate market is still a bit slow from what I've seen. Although, then I suppose I would have to think up a good name for it, because no one wants to go through the trouble of creating a time consuming theorem without giving it a catchy name!

Look at the Pythagorean Theorem. Now that's one catchy name for a theorem! Athough, it didn't hurt that he already had kind of a fun name as Pythagoras. Parents just seemed to be a lot more creative with names back then.

And wouldn't you know it, there's already an Anderson's Theorem. I suppose that if this real estate market picks up any more I might just have to name it Dan's Theorem to save some time. I don't think there's one of those yet.

Maybe someday analysts will get paid based on merit and how accurate they are with their prognostications, and maybe then we will be able to believe them. But until that time we will have to make political decisions, investment decisions, and real estate decisions based on incessant babble from talking heads...or on our own gut feelings.

Oh...gotta go. ABC News just called and they're having a round-table discussion tomorrow morning that includes all the people with eight letters in their last name, and how that relates to your lifetime earning capacity. Hopefully, I can get a few words in because I have some pretty strong opinions on this subject!

Friday, October 10, 2008

Here's A Thought

Well, I really wanted to get off this stock market stuff this week, but it seems to be taking center stage in our lives. Every day they tell us we lost another Trillion Dollars or so...but I'm really not sure where it went!

Maybe we are just dealing with "funny money" here. Not that it's funny how everyone is losing their retirement accounts and other supposedly safe investments, but how did we really get here? I imagine that a good part of it stems from the idea that we should be able to make a buck from someone else's actions - but it just doesn't seem to work that way.

What I'm talking about is this...

When I built my real estate business, or when the guy down the street started his hardware store, we each had to put a lot of money, time and hard work into making a profit. There were no guarantees other than looking at similar businesses that seemed to be making money, and trying to run our businesses as well - or better - than they were running theirs.

If we did have some extra money at the end of the month, we generally put it back into our business in the form or advertising, capital improvements, or other investments that we thought would help us grow - and sometimes we needed to borrow money to accomplish these same things - but if we were to succeed or fail, it would be our doing. We firmly believed that no one could make us more money that we could make ourselves!

Somewhere along the line things got a little bit blurred. Instead of people wanting to start businesses and build them from scratch - mutual funds, stocks and all kinds of fancy investment vehicles began offering returns that were out of sight. What sense did it make to work 20 hour days to create a successful company when you could just invest in one (or several through a spectacular fund) that paid back 50%, or more, on returns last year? Why not let someone else do all the work?

That is what a lot of people did. And many of the whiz-kids who were handling once-safe retirement accounts decided to do that too!

Hedge fund managers and others in high finance made tens of millions, if not billions, managing all this easy money. But everyone kind of forgot what the money was for.

The reason the money was even there in the first place was to invest in little companies (like yours and mine) that grew to be bigger companies over time because of our hard work. We may have brought in an investor or two during our early years who truly believed in our vision and wanted to be a part of our growth. But as we got bigger, most investors didn't even know what our vision was anymore...however, they were sure that the money manager they put their $50,000 nest egg with understood it completely.

And, of course, now that we worked and worked to get our little businesses to a level that might sustain our kids' college educations and our retirement, our little businesses are having a hard time making money because no one has anymore to spend. All the people who invested in the big companies - hoping to create their own nest eggs for college and retirement - have an egg or two missing. And the nest, itself, is getting a bit tattered.

It might not have been a bad idea for the government to hand out $100,000 loans last week to the little guys and gals who would build their own businesses from scratch, instead of throwing $700 Billion into the "abyss" like they did. That would have been enough to get about 7 million motivated people up and running...and in control of their own destiny!

Saturday, October 4, 2008

All's Fine Now!

Well, now that the bailout bill has passed, we should be heading full steam ahead. Although, I think I noticed a slight blip in that based on the Dow yesterday.

Back when I was doing a lot of stock trading in the late 90s, I remember how common it was to see the market drop instead of going up on good news. Not that the bailout is all "good news" for everyone, but many of those in high finance have been touting it as such. The reality is that, because it has been talked about for so long, it has already been factored into the market - and the stock market has become more of a knee jerk index based on immediately released news.

However, my specialty is real estate instead of stocks, so I'll try to stick with that from now on. The funny thing here is that our sales have seemed to be stronger during the past month than they have been for most of the year. Either people are just getting sick and tired of letting the bad economic news kick them around...or maybe we are in the beginning of a recovery.

Let's let the pundits battle back and forth on the news networks, while we quietly start getting the real estate market moving again without them noticing.

Dan