Breaking it Down

Hope you all had a good summer. I decided to take a break from the writing for a few months just to see how this market was shaking out. Some of the talking heads were saying that it was going to be a fantastic real estate year, and others thought we were in for a much deeper fall. Of course, the only way to tell for sure is to look at the market after the fact, and I think we can now start taking a little glimpse into that data.

There is no doubt that the tax credit idea did help spur sales for first time buyers last spring, but the fallout of that is probably still going on. Many of those people would have purchased anyway, and would have evened out the market some over the next several months. Instead, that market came to an abrupt halt once the credits had gone away, and led to headlines in August such as, "Metro-area Home Sales Down 42% Over Last Month."

But our focus continues to be on waterfront properties for the most part. So I am going to start putting out the real numbers -- county by county -- to give you the honest truth.

Today, I am starting with Itasca County, Minnesota, the home of Grand Rapids, Marcell, Bigfork, Coleraine, Deer River, and a few other hamlets. It is also the early home of Judy Garland, who moved away for bigger and better things before she could spend much time out on the lakes. It is a water-filled area where the Mississippi River winds through, and boasts 1007 lakes within its boundaries, according to Mary Shideler -- The Kayak Lady -- who has paddled all of them as of this year, an odyssey she began in 1996.

When you use multiple listing data to look at sales in defined areas, you are always going to have some overlap between various counties. So even though most of these properties are in Itasca County itself, some will be in Koochiching, St. Louis, Cass, and perhaps a couple others that border it. But for the most part, the idea of comparing apples to apples in terms of sales from year to year will remain true.

So here we go. As of today, September 13, 2010, here are the market statistics, broken down into residential waterfront properties and waterfront lots, separately:

Residential Properties
Active on Market
397
Average Price
$317,309
Average Days on Market
209

Solds 1/01/10 - 9/13/10
74
Average List Price
$247,187
Average Sold Price
$226,222
Average Days on Market
236

Solds 1/01/09 - 9/13/09
65
Average List Price
$249,673
Average Sold Price
$226,666
Average Days on Market
220

Lots
Active on Market
323
Average Price
$153,218
Average Days on Market
272

Solds 1/01/10 - 9/13/10
26
Average List Price
$119,675
Average Sold Price
$105,788
Average Days on Market
274

Solds 1/01/09 - 9/13/09
18
Average List Price
$127,216
Average Sold Price
$108,888
Average Days on Market
347

So how does this look overall? We have been having a fairly steady drop in prices for several years, and this year -- although not great -- prices seem to be holding over last year. That should signal the bottom of the dip for Itasca County waterfront properties, so now we just have to wait and see how fast the rebound occurs. Most likely, it will start bringing some people back into the market that were worried about further drops, but it will still be a long process to bring things back close to where they were.

Watch for breakdowns on other counties around the state, as we try to get a handle on where this market is going next.