As the broker for Lakehomes.com Realty, I am obligated, by law, to review all the purchase agreements that come in to the office from my agents. I can tell you that I've been pretty busy over the last week. And it isn't just one or two agents - or one or two areas - it is starting to get busy across most of the state.
I've been saying for awhile now that there will be a spring market sooner or later, and I'm sure most of you were thinking I was crying "wolf!" I can't tell you how long it will last, but I've noticed some major changes this past week in how the media is now perceiving the market.
Just a month ago, nearly every news report was geared toward the sinking real estate market and all the bad things that go along with it. But the most current news stories are more focused on what good deals are out there, and how people that were priced out of the market just a couple years ago can now start buying again. Who flipped that switch?
With all this good news, I suppose that we will now go back to multiple offers on properties, with sale prices higher that what they were listed for. Well, that might be an exaggeration, but history has plenty of proof that we humans tend to act quite similar to lemmings when it comes down to good news...or bad!
I don't want to dwell on how the 2008 real estate market may or may not turn out. And I certainly won't pretend to be an expert in real estate markets across the United States - or even those other than the ones relating to waterfront properties. But based on how the phone has been ringing lately, those buyers who are in search of lakeshore homes and cabins in Minnesota and Wisconsin are definitely in the hunt.
To confirm that I wasn't just imagining the increased interest in waterfront real estate, I checked our page views on our national websites at LakehomesUSA.com, RiverhomesUSA.com and OceanhomesUSA.com. On those sites we are pushing nearly 2,000,000 page views each month, which is about double of what we were last year. Lakehomes.com, which is focused mainly on Minnesota and Western Wisconsin, has also hit record levels with nearly 1,000 visitors on the site each day viewing multiple listing pages. The waterfront buyers haven't disappeared by any means, it's just that most of them have been waiting for the right time to jump back in.
I've kind of tired from writing about the market in general, which is why I haven't been posting as often as I was. But now that sales are starting to finally take place, I will quit boring you with my day to day thoughts of how this funky real estate market may play out. No one knows - including me - so let's just sit back and watch.
While we are waiting for the results, I'll try to think up some more interesting things to entertain you with.
Friday, May 30, 2008
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
An Update On Lakeshore Sales
Generally, by now the spring market is starting to heat up for the year. However, this year we are having a problem with "heating up" in more ways than one!
I wrote an article a couple months ago that talked about how the weather was not always a big factor in the spring market. It basically said that when people sensed that spring was coming (sometime around the beginning of March), then they changed their habits and starting thinking about new purchases like lake cabins - or even moving to new areas. But in talking - quite often - with other seasoned agents around the state, this may be the oddest year any of us can remember.
Over the years I have noticed that the spring lakeshore real estate market can start as early as February, but might begin as late as mid-April. These are typically the buyers that have decided the time is right to make the move to either a lake home or a waterfront cabin. They see themselves moving in shortly after ice-out, and getting full use of their lake place for the lengthy Minnesota summer.
Well, I just looked at the calendar, and I believe it is May 20th. If I started to check off the months till summer ends, I could probably add them all up on one hand...and have two or three fingers left over for next year's market. It doesn't look real promising from a seller's standpoint. And in case that isn't a big enough downer, here is another taste of reality....
I thought it might be interesting to look at residential waterfront sales during a certain spring period for the past several years. Since the Twin Cities Multiple Listing Service (Northstar) is by far the largest in the state, and because it has data from nearly every county throughout Minnesota and Western Wisconsin, we should be able to get a reasonable comparison of what the waterfront market has been like year to year since 2001.
I decided to use the time frame from April 1st of each year through today's date (May 20th), since that should be right in the midst of the spring market overall. I used only residential sales; no bare lots or commercial properties. So here it goes:
2001 - 288 units
2002 - 266 units
2003 - 335 units
2004 - 414 units
2005 - 489 units (looks good so far!)
2006 - 334 units (whoops)
2007 - 278 units (double whoops)
2008 - 245 units
One more thing you should know about this is that Northstar MLS has grown quite extensively throughout most regions of Minnesota and Western Wisconsin over the last few years, causing greater numbers of unit sales to be reported each year based on listing numbers alone. That said, these numbers show even a larger drop in units if compared more accurately to the earlier years of this data.
I could go further and look at average sale prices and market times, but this should be a big enough dose of reality for tonight. The market is simply not as good as it was a few years ago. However, there is a silver lining inside this cloud that all sellers should be aware of.
Throughout the years, even in good markets, about half the homes listed do not sell. They go off the market after being listed for 3-12 months or more, only to get picked up by another brokerage...and perhaps others after that. Whether it is because of poor location, condition, marketing, or any other excuse that you might try to pin on it, it is always because of a price that is too high for that particular piece of real estate. Even if the structure was in terrible shape, the land would still be worth a certain amount that would sell in any market if priced correctly. Today's real estate market is no different.
Our company has had several waterfront sales over the last few days. There are very good and qualified buyers in the market right now who will pay reasonable prices for good lakefront properties. But, there is still an unbelievable amount of properties for sale in poor condition listed at unreal prices. If you are a serious seller, all you have to do is make sure yours stands out from the rest of the pack - both in condition and price!
Ask your agent to take you out to half a dozen listings that are similar to yours. Be as objective as you can, and try to look at your property as if you were the buyer. Which of the homes or cabins would you choose? Is yours truly the best of the bunch, at the best price?
Don't be fooled by believing that prices and sales numbers are going to immediately return to their levels from a few years ago. If you can afford to take a little bigger hit that you originally anticipated on the selling end, you will most likely make it up on your purchase if you are buying something else.
But buyers should also realize that there may never be another time where prices for homes and cabins are so inexpensive, in relation to to actual land values and building costs. Some of those smart buyers are moving back into the waterfront market, and are picking up some great properties at prices they couldn't touch a couple years ago. I personally believe that these people are buying very close to the bottom of the market, and that lakeshore values will edge up slightly - depending on the amount of unsold inventory that remains available.
And remember that the lakeshore market up north is a fairly limited one, so don't wait until the end of July to get your lake home or cabin to the top of the buyers' lists! That's normally about the time Minnesotans are more interested in getting their snowmobiles ready to go again.
I wrote an article a couple months ago that talked about how the weather was not always a big factor in the spring market. It basically said that when people sensed that spring was coming (sometime around the beginning of March), then they changed their habits and starting thinking about new purchases like lake cabins - or even moving to new areas. But in talking - quite often - with other seasoned agents around the state, this may be the oddest year any of us can remember.
Over the years I have noticed that the spring lakeshore real estate market can start as early as February, but might begin as late as mid-April. These are typically the buyers that have decided the time is right to make the move to either a lake home or a waterfront cabin. They see themselves moving in shortly after ice-out, and getting full use of their lake place for the lengthy Minnesota summer.
Well, I just looked at the calendar, and I believe it is May 20th. If I started to check off the months till summer ends, I could probably add them all up on one hand...and have two or three fingers left over for next year's market. It doesn't look real promising from a seller's standpoint. And in case that isn't a big enough downer, here is another taste of reality....
I thought it might be interesting to look at residential waterfront sales during a certain spring period for the past several years. Since the Twin Cities Multiple Listing Service (Northstar) is by far the largest in the state, and because it has data from nearly every county throughout Minnesota and Western Wisconsin, we should be able to get a reasonable comparison of what the waterfront market has been like year to year since 2001.
I decided to use the time frame from April 1st of each year through today's date (May 20th), since that should be right in the midst of the spring market overall. I used only residential sales; no bare lots or commercial properties. So here it goes:
2001 - 288 units
2002 - 266 units
2003 - 335 units
2004 - 414 units
2005 - 489 units (looks good so far!)
2006 - 334 units (whoops)
2007 - 278 units (double whoops)
2008 - 245 units
One more thing you should know about this is that Northstar MLS has grown quite extensively throughout most regions of Minnesota and Western Wisconsin over the last few years, causing greater numbers of unit sales to be reported each year based on listing numbers alone. That said, these numbers show even a larger drop in units if compared more accurately to the earlier years of this data.
I could go further and look at average sale prices and market times, but this should be a big enough dose of reality for tonight. The market is simply not as good as it was a few years ago. However, there is a silver lining inside this cloud that all sellers should be aware of.
Throughout the years, even in good markets, about half the homes listed do not sell. They go off the market after being listed for 3-12 months or more, only to get picked up by another brokerage...and perhaps others after that. Whether it is because of poor location, condition, marketing, or any other excuse that you might try to pin on it, it is always because of a price that is too high for that particular piece of real estate. Even if the structure was in terrible shape, the land would still be worth a certain amount that would sell in any market if priced correctly. Today's real estate market is no different.
Our company has had several waterfront sales over the last few days. There are very good and qualified buyers in the market right now who will pay reasonable prices for good lakefront properties. But, there is still an unbelievable amount of properties for sale in poor condition listed at unreal prices. If you are a serious seller, all you have to do is make sure yours stands out from the rest of the pack - both in condition and price!
Ask your agent to take you out to half a dozen listings that are similar to yours. Be as objective as you can, and try to look at your property as if you were the buyer. Which of the homes or cabins would you choose? Is yours truly the best of the bunch, at the best price?
Don't be fooled by believing that prices and sales numbers are going to immediately return to their levels from a few years ago. If you can afford to take a little bigger hit that you originally anticipated on the selling end, you will most likely make it up on your purchase if you are buying something else.
But buyers should also realize that there may never be another time where prices for homes and cabins are so inexpensive, in relation to to actual land values and building costs. Some of those smart buyers are moving back into the waterfront market, and are picking up some great properties at prices they couldn't touch a couple years ago. I personally believe that these people are buying very close to the bottom of the market, and that lakeshore values will edge up slightly - depending on the amount of unsold inventory that remains available.
And remember that the lakeshore market up north is a fairly limited one, so don't wait until the end of July to get your lake home or cabin to the top of the buyers' lists! That's normally about the time Minnesotans are more interested in getting their snowmobiles ready to go again.
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Part 6 of Series..."What to Think About When Buying Lakeshore"
Part 6: Make Room for Mother...and Father
I thought that Mothers Day would be a fitting time to talk about a few of the concerns I've heard over the years, relating to space for the extra guests. Kids are generally quite easy; they can throw up a tent or sleep on the floor. But older guests many times need something a bit more comfortable than that.
When people start looking for lake cabins, many of them tend to create a picture in their minds about large gatherings of friends and family all enjoying the recreational opportunities available on and off the water. Oftentimes this does happen (unless of course you don't invite them), so if this is part of your plan you should consider things like sleeping arrangements, parking, access to the water, and even space needed to hide out on bad weather days. Of course you don't want to go overboard on these things just because you might have a party now and then, but I'll give you a few things to at least think about before you buy.
Bedroom space can be kind of a tough one. A lot of lake cabin buyers don't want to have a real big place because they already have one of those to take care of. They like the idea of having a more rustic getaway - the kind of place that feels like a cabin. That is probably the one comment I hear more than any other one.
Cabins, of course, come in all sizes. But unless they are decked out in a lot of interior wood and north woods furnishings - along with an open design that gives a more lodge-like ambiance - the larger ones can start to feel a lot more like lake homes than lake cabins. A cozy cabin with two or three bedrooms seems to fit a lot more of the buyers than the four or five-bedroom models.
Obviously, this lack of sleeping space can become an issue if you regularly have extra company, and when the parents come to visit they might like to have a little privacy. You can always do some temporary conversions like a sleeping porch, bunkhouse, or even closing off another area to create separation if you have room. Another good option is to have an extra camper or motorhome on the property to give you some added sleeping space for a lot less money than an addition. Just make sure you have a level area to park it in, otherwise you may see your guests rolling down the hill.
Steep lots can also be a problem for older guests...and for adults trying to keep an eye on younger ones. Treetop views offer great panoramas of the water below, but getting down to the beach - and back up again - can offer some challenges to the non-athletes. On some of the higher lots with more gradual slopes, there might be a path for a golf cart or four-wheeler that can make the trip up and down quite a bit more enjoyable. And it may make the difference between some of your guests being able to make it to the boat - or not - if you decide to purchase a lake place on one of these more elevated properties.
Parking is something that presents a bigger problem on some lake properties, just by the nature of how roads around lakes have been placed. Most everyone has taken a scenic drive along the lakeshore and seen how cabins are sometimes packed in against the road. Quite often there is not a lot of depth to these lots, so the only parking available off the road is in the driveway - which might only hold a couple of cars.
If the road is wide enough with ample shoulders, it might not be too big of a problem. But many roads around lakes can have a steady stream of traffic during the busier months, and because they tend to be quite narrow (often with no shoulders at all), it can create quite a problem when friends need a place to park.
Lake cabins can be a great place for solitude and to get away from the daily rush of life, but they can also bring a lot of enjoyment to you and your extended family and friends. Just make sure you will have enough space to accommodate all age groups that you envision coming out to share these good times with you.
And remember that even in Minnesota and Wisconsin, we usually get a few days that being outside can be a little miserable. Having twelve people in a two-room cabin might get a bit tight during these times...so try to think ahead.
I thought that Mothers Day would be a fitting time to talk about a few of the concerns I've heard over the years, relating to space for the extra guests. Kids are generally quite easy; they can throw up a tent or sleep on the floor. But older guests many times need something a bit more comfortable than that.
When people start looking for lake cabins, many of them tend to create a picture in their minds about large gatherings of friends and family all enjoying the recreational opportunities available on and off the water. Oftentimes this does happen (unless of course you don't invite them), so if this is part of your plan you should consider things like sleeping arrangements, parking, access to the water, and even space needed to hide out on bad weather days. Of course you don't want to go overboard on these things just because you might have a party now and then, but I'll give you a few things to at least think about before you buy.
Bedroom space can be kind of a tough one. A lot of lake cabin buyers don't want to have a real big place because they already have one of those to take care of. They like the idea of having a more rustic getaway - the kind of place that feels like a cabin. That is probably the one comment I hear more than any other one.
Cabins, of course, come in all sizes. But unless they are decked out in a lot of interior wood and north woods furnishings - along with an open design that gives a more lodge-like ambiance - the larger ones can start to feel a lot more like lake homes than lake cabins. A cozy cabin with two or three bedrooms seems to fit a lot more of the buyers than the four or five-bedroom models.
Obviously, this lack of sleeping space can become an issue if you regularly have extra company, and when the parents come to visit they might like to have a little privacy. You can always do some temporary conversions like a sleeping porch, bunkhouse, or even closing off another area to create separation if you have room. Another good option is to have an extra camper or motorhome on the property to give you some added sleeping space for a lot less money than an addition. Just make sure you have a level area to park it in, otherwise you may see your guests rolling down the hill.
Steep lots can also be a problem for older guests...and for adults trying to keep an eye on younger ones. Treetop views offer great panoramas of the water below, but getting down to the beach - and back up again - can offer some challenges to the non-athletes. On some of the higher lots with more gradual slopes, there might be a path for a golf cart or four-wheeler that can make the trip up and down quite a bit more enjoyable. And it may make the difference between some of your guests being able to make it to the boat - or not - if you decide to purchase a lake place on one of these more elevated properties.
Parking is something that presents a bigger problem on some lake properties, just by the nature of how roads around lakes have been placed. Most everyone has taken a scenic drive along the lakeshore and seen how cabins are sometimes packed in against the road. Quite often there is not a lot of depth to these lots, so the only parking available off the road is in the driveway - which might only hold a couple of cars.
If the road is wide enough with ample shoulders, it might not be too big of a problem. But many roads around lakes can have a steady stream of traffic during the busier months, and because they tend to be quite narrow (often with no shoulders at all), it can create quite a problem when friends need a place to park.
Lake cabins can be a great place for solitude and to get away from the daily rush of life, but they can also bring a lot of enjoyment to you and your extended family and friends. Just make sure you will have enough space to accommodate all age groups that you envision coming out to share these good times with you.
And remember that even in Minnesota and Wisconsin, we usually get a few days that being outside can be a little miserable. Having twelve people in a two-room cabin might get a bit tight during these times...so try to think ahead.
Monday, May 5, 2008
Rock Bottom May Have Already Hit...In Some Markets
As some markets across Minnesota seem to be languishing in excessive inventories of unsold homes, along with rampant low ball offers, I am starting to get a few reports from around the state that vary from that a bit. I have a few ideas on why this might be happening.
While I was at a wedding in International Falls on Saturday, the county assessor mentioned to me that the recent sales coming through his office prove that prices are holding steady at last year's levels. Holding steady!...Hasn't the media been telling us that everything is in a downward spiral? And isn't International Falls only mentioned sporadically as one of the top relocation markets in the nation? Why would their prices be holding steady?
If we all think back to about five years ago, it seemed like real estate prices in some parts of Minnesota - and in many parts of the country - were increasing in value at an unbelievable pace. Some areas of the Twin Cities had over 20% appreciation from year to year, even higher than the adjustment in most peoples' wages. There were many supposed reasons for this rapid escalation, from the high cost of building materials to a huge shortage of labor. In fact, there were reports that gypsum may become extinct, so if you were going to have sheet rock walls, "you better get them now!"
Of course, in retrospect, all of this was silly. Just as silly as the thought of a corn field development house, in the outer rings of the Twin Cities, increasing at 21.3% in one year. I guess people thought that corn fields would become extinct, too (in fact they may have if developers would have been able to keep up that pace much longer).
But the Twin Cities wasn't the only area that prices had superb appreciation over the last decade. Waterfront properties in some of the more popular vacation areas of Minnesota and Wisconsin had their lakeshore values (just the land costs alone) increase to over $5,000 per front foot - or more - on the most sought after lakes, and not much lower on some of the secondary ones. However, there were a few markets around that didn't share as much in this free-for-all, and they might be the ones that are holding their own better than the rest.
Areas like Lake of the Woods, Rainy Lake, Grand Rapids, Park Rapids and Duluth, among others, have no shortage of spectacular recreational opportunities and beauty. However, due to certain factors, and possibly their increased distance from the Twin Cities, the prices have not escalated in those lake areas nearly as much as some others. In fact, you may have to try real hard to even spend $2,000 per front foot on some of the best lakes in those areas, even for some of the most private and attractive lots around. And many times you can throw in a pretty nice lake home or cabin for another 20-30%. Try building for $20 a square foot these days (plus a free septic, well, driveway, landscaping and garage).
There is no doubt in my mind that areas like Brainerd, Lake Vermilion and Hayward will be popular markets for lakefront real estate far into the future. They have vast amounts of water, great fishing, plenty of interesting ways to pass the time, and good proximity to Minneapolis and St. Paul. That is what caused them to become attractive vacation home markets in the first place...and what gave them their quick appreciation over other lake areas.
Only time - and some warmer weather - will tell if certain markets around Minnesota still have a little cleaning out to do. But from what I am seeing, rock bottom may have already hit in others. If that has truly happened, I would wager that the rest of them aren't too far behind!
While I was at a wedding in International Falls on Saturday, the county assessor mentioned to me that the recent sales coming through his office prove that prices are holding steady at last year's levels. Holding steady!...Hasn't the media been telling us that everything is in a downward spiral? And isn't International Falls only mentioned sporadically as one of the top relocation markets in the nation? Why would their prices be holding steady?
If we all think back to about five years ago, it seemed like real estate prices in some parts of Minnesota - and in many parts of the country - were increasing in value at an unbelievable pace. Some areas of the Twin Cities had over 20% appreciation from year to year, even higher than the adjustment in most peoples' wages. There were many supposed reasons for this rapid escalation, from the high cost of building materials to a huge shortage of labor. In fact, there were reports that gypsum may become extinct, so if you were going to have sheet rock walls, "you better get them now!"
Of course, in retrospect, all of this was silly. Just as silly as the thought of a corn field development house, in the outer rings of the Twin Cities, increasing at 21.3% in one year. I guess people thought that corn fields would become extinct, too (in fact they may have if developers would have been able to keep up that pace much longer).
But the Twin Cities wasn't the only area that prices had superb appreciation over the last decade. Waterfront properties in some of the more popular vacation areas of Minnesota and Wisconsin had their lakeshore values (just the land costs alone) increase to over $5,000 per front foot - or more - on the most sought after lakes, and not much lower on some of the secondary ones. However, there were a few markets around that didn't share as much in this free-for-all, and they might be the ones that are holding their own better than the rest.
Areas like Lake of the Woods, Rainy Lake, Grand Rapids, Park Rapids and Duluth, among others, have no shortage of spectacular recreational opportunities and beauty. However, due to certain factors, and possibly their increased distance from the Twin Cities, the prices have not escalated in those lake areas nearly as much as some others. In fact, you may have to try real hard to even spend $2,000 per front foot on some of the best lakes in those areas, even for some of the most private and attractive lots around. And many times you can throw in a pretty nice lake home or cabin for another 20-30%. Try building for $20 a square foot these days (plus a free septic, well, driveway, landscaping and garage).
There is no doubt in my mind that areas like Brainerd, Lake Vermilion and Hayward will be popular markets for lakefront real estate far into the future. They have vast amounts of water, great fishing, plenty of interesting ways to pass the time, and good proximity to Minneapolis and St. Paul. That is what caused them to become attractive vacation home markets in the first place...and what gave them their quick appreciation over other lake areas.
Only time - and some warmer weather - will tell if certain markets around Minnesota still have a little cleaning out to do. But from what I am seeing, rock bottom may have already hit in others. If that has truly happened, I would wager that the rest of them aren't too far behind!
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