An Update On Lakeshore Sales

Generally, by now the spring market is starting to heat up for the year. However, this year we are having a problem with "heating up" in more ways than one!

I wrote an article a couple months ago that talked about how the weather was not always a big factor in the spring market. It basically said that when people sensed that spring was coming (sometime around the beginning of March), then they changed their habits and starting thinking about new purchases like lake cabins - or even moving to new areas. But in talking - quite often - with other seasoned agents around the state, this may be the oddest year any of us can remember.

Over the years I have noticed that the spring lakeshore real estate market can start as early as February, but might begin as late as mid-April. These are typically the buyers that have decided the time is right to make the move to either a lake home or a waterfront cabin. They see themselves moving in shortly after ice-out, and getting full use of their lake place for the lengthy Minnesota summer.

Well, I just looked at the calendar, and I believe it is May 20th. If I started to check off the months till summer ends, I could probably add them all up on one hand...and have two or three fingers left over for next year's market. It doesn't look real promising from a seller's standpoint. And in case that isn't a big enough downer, here is another taste of reality....

I thought it might be interesting to look at residential waterfront sales during a certain spring period for the past several years. Since the Twin Cities Multiple Listing Service (Northstar) is by far the largest in the state, and because it has data from nearly every county throughout Minnesota and Western Wisconsin, we should be able to get a reasonable comparison of what the waterfront market has been like year to year since 2001.

I decided to use the time frame from April 1st of each year through today's date (May 20th), since that should be right in the midst of the spring market overall. I used only residential sales; no bare lots or commercial properties. So here it goes:

2001 - 288 units
2002 - 266 units
2003 - 335 units
2004 - 414 units
2005 - 489 units (looks good so far!)
2006 - 334 units (whoops)
2007 - 278 units (double whoops)
2008 - 245 units

One more thing you should know about this is that Northstar MLS has grown quite extensively throughout most regions of Minnesota and Western Wisconsin over the last few years, causing greater numbers of unit sales to be reported each year based on listing numbers alone. That said, these numbers show even a larger drop in units if compared more accurately to the earlier years of this data.

I could go further and look at average sale prices and market times, but this should be a big enough dose of reality for tonight. The market is simply not as good as it was a few years ago. However, there is a silver lining inside this cloud that all sellers should be aware of.

Throughout the years, even in good markets, about half the homes listed do not sell. They go off the market after being listed for 3-12 months or more, only to get picked up by another brokerage...and perhaps others after that. Whether it is because of poor location, condition, marketing, or any other excuse that you might try to pin on it, it is always because of a price that is too high for that particular piece of real estate. Even if the structure was in terrible shape, the land would still be worth a certain amount that would sell in any market if priced correctly. Today's real estate market is no different.

Our company has had several waterfront sales over the last few days. There are very good and qualified buyers in the market right now who will pay reasonable prices for good lakefront properties. But, there is still an unbelievable amount of properties for sale in poor condition listed at unreal prices. If you are a serious seller, all you have to do is make sure yours stands out from the rest of the pack - both in condition and price!

Ask your agent to take you out to half a dozen listings that are similar to yours. Be as objective as you can, and try to look at your property as if you were the buyer. Which of the homes or cabins would you choose? Is yours truly the best of the bunch, at the best price?

Don't be fooled by believing that prices and sales numbers are going to immediately return to their levels from a few years ago. If you can afford to take a little bigger hit that you originally anticipated on the selling end, you will most likely make it up on your purchase if you are buying something else.

But buyers should also realize that there may never be another time where prices for homes and cabins are so inexpensive, in relation to to actual land values and building costs. Some of those smart buyers are moving back into the waterfront market, and are picking up some great properties at prices they couldn't touch a couple years ago. I personally believe that these people are buying very close to the bottom of the market, and that lakeshore values will edge up slightly - depending on the amount of unsold inventory that remains available.

And remember that the lakeshore market up north is a fairly limited one, so don't wait until the end of July to get your lake home or cabin to the top of the buyers' lists! That's normally about the time Minnesotans are more interested in getting their snowmobiles ready to go again.